Series: A Usable Peace Plan
- A Usable Peace Plan
- Reciprocal Autonomy and Settlement
- Regional Industrial Cooperation – Peace through Industrialization
- Defusing the International Peace Conference
Consider a process wherein Israel agrees to accept a modest number of “refugee” Palestinians into Judea and Samaria under a settlement/ autonomy plan. Concurrently, Jordan would be publically invited to accept a similar number of Palestinian refugees and re-settle them on what is called the East Bank of the Jordan.
The underlying plan would evaluate various factors to make such a settlement program feasible. This would include acceptable density of population specified by the known culture; land availability, i.e. arable land as opposed to arid land, such as is the bulk of the West Bank; integration of population based upon similar backgrounds, natural resources of water, waste disposal, infrastructure for employment, etc. Funding would be provided by the U.S., Europe and ‘moderate’ Arab nations as a Middle Eastern self-help plan/grant program.
The initiating process would take a considerable number of years. First, there would be the expected rejection of the concept by Jordan and the Arab nations. The PLO would vocally downgrade the concept, but the idea of establishing roots in Jordan with an eye to future expansion would be quite attractive to the PLO. The logic of the concept would please sophisticated Western minds and thought processes.
It is clear that the small territorial enclaves of Judea, Samaria and Gaza are mostly either a mountain side or already inhabited by local Palestinians. Research would demonstrate that compressing what is called the “Palestinian refugee problem” into the West Bank/Gaza is a certain guarantee for seething anger and constant war with Israel. This unsettled State of “New Palestine” would soon spread to other nations in the area, again affecting the free trade and secure access to oil in which the West is so interested.
Although the previous recommendation called “Jordan is Palestine” is operative, it should NOT be mentioned in connection with this plan. This previous plan sounded adversarial and was not accompanied with the sort of thought needed to appear viable in the eyes of the other side.
The matter of densification would be irrelevant to the PLO, since it would in a way be highly desirable. Compressing several million people into a small area would provide the same breeding grounds for hate, volunteer youth and eventually a well-trained and dedicated military force (like Lebanon). It would also draw in substantial funds from the Arab and humanitarianistic West. I believe that once the population would start to grow, the PLO would initiate another ‘intifada’, but on a grander scale with serious weapons.
The surrounding Arab nations in cooperation with the PLO, would immediately eject their unwanted Palestinians, but would likely add to them other groups they consider a problem. In essence, we would have a replay of the mixed multitudes that came with Moses or the Mariel Cuban boat criminals dumped out of prisons and mental institutions. You may also recall the Nigerians ejecting the Biafrans, ignoring the fact that there was simply no place for them to go. All roads would lead to the designated “New Palestine”, with those roads being clogged by pitiful refugees. Naturally, Israel would be blamed for all the ills of dislocation instead of the countries who ejected their unwanteds.
What then is the probability of Jordan’s King Hussein willingly accepting such a plan? Regretfully, very low. I would imagine that the initial rejection would be unequivocal. However, if the plan is logical and recognizes the problem of massive resettlement, then the U.S. and the Europeans will receive it with some interest. Although their normal response is to go with the Arab view, on this issue even the most biased cannot ignore the matter of physics: One simply cannot put 2 pounds of matter into a 1 pound hole (unless it is the astronomical black hole). Indeed, the West Bank could become such a phenomenal ‘black hole’, if the world insists on compressing Palestinian humanity into such a space. War would follow war, with human resources destroyed daily.
The plan must be designed to appeal to the American public and Congress. The White House and State Department would likely be willing to overlook the demographic problems of a West Bank Palestinian State, if it gave them the appearance of a short-term political solution. The American people and Congress could be swayed the other way, because they understand the problems of overcrowded cities, gangs who roam the streets, drugs and uncontrollable crime. This story can be very persuasive, if presented properly.
If the plan is to include Jordan with its large land mass, water resources, current majority of Palestinians and its need for additional population is rejected, then negotiations will bog down. It then becomes imperative for Israel to make its case as an expert in resettling people with the same cultures and religion. Israel will ask the Arab nations to assist Jordan in this great humanitarian gesture of initially accepting several hundred thousand of their own family.
Note! I will assume that comparative studies in population density exist. Nations with a refined culture such as Japan have been able to evolve patterns of daily living despite the pressure of a dense population on limited space. On the other hand, Cairo shows a seething mass of poverty, with people living in cemeteries and combing garbage dumps for food. It is academic information such as this which should be brought forward, indicating Israel’s serious intent to help solve the problem. However, there are some statistics, likely developed by the same nations calling for this compression, which will also prove that, even though the Arab nations would delight in Israel’s problems with burgeoning refugee camps, the West will see the limitations of overloading in terms of unceasing conflict. Again it must be demonstrated that this will not benefit their economic global plans.
Since America, the ECM, and Japan among other industrial nations, see the world through cash flow, trade and political power, it is necessary to provide additional planning to satisfy that thrust.